CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001)

2-CME simulation result for the bulk measurements of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z and CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-17T17:43:13Z
## Message ID: 20240317-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~499 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -24/-48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001

2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~325 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A (minor impact).  The leading edge of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-18T22:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-03-20T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-21T05:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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